Hurricane Tracker
Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
7-Day Tropical Outlooks
Last updated at end of 2025 season. New outlooks begin June 1.
Central Pacific — updated every 6 hours by CPHC
Pacific Wide — Eastern and Central Pacific basins
Sea Surface Temperatures
Ocean heat that fuels tropical cyclone development
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Why SST matters: Tropical cyclones need ocean water of at least 26.5°C (80°F) to form and intensify. Warmer water provides more energy through evaporation, fueling stronger storms.
El Niño effect: During El Niño years, warm water shifts eastward into the Central Pacific, increasing hurricane risk near Hawaii. The warm pool expands, creating favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development in areas that are normally too cool.
Areas shown in red/orange (28°C+) have the most energy available for storm development. The transition zone near 26.5°C (shown in yellow) marks the boundary where tropical cyclone formation becomes possible.
2026 Season Outlook
Potential Super El Niño — Elevated Hurricane Risk for Hawaii
As of March 2026, La Niña is fading and a transition to ENSO-neutral is expected within the next month. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts El Niño emerging by mid-2026, with a 62% chance by June–August and a 1-in-3 chance of reaching "strong" status (Niño-3.4 ≥ +1.5°C) by Oct–Dec. A large amount of heat in the subsurface ocean supports El Niño formation. ECMWF models suggest it could rival the strongest events on record (1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16).
What this means for Hawaii: El Niño events drive warm water across the subtropical and tropical eastern Pacific through the Pacific Meridional Mode. This creates conditions favorable for more tropical storms and hurricanes tracking near or over the Hawaiian Islands during the Jun–Nov season. The 2015-16 super El Niño brought record Central Pacific hurricane activity.
Sources:NOAA CPC ENSO Discussion Copernicus/ECMWF Seasonal Forecast
Prepare Now
Don't wait for a hurricane to prepare
With an elevated hurricane season ahead, now is the time to prepare — not when a storm is bearing down. Stock up on supplies, review your evacuation zone and shelter locations, and make a family plan while stores are stocked and you can think clearly.